There’s been a lot of speculation recently about the chances of the Conservatives winning the next General Election, with a lot of people prognosticating about can or can’t happen over the next two and a half years.
I thought it would be interesting to play a game of “What happened next?”.
The game is simple. I have listed polling scores for the governing party and the opposition party roughly two and a half years before ten post-war elections.1
All you have to do is guess which General Election followed roughly two and a half years after these poll results.
If we get a few entries (more than ten?) in the comments, I’ll send the winner a copy of Phil Cowley and Dennis Kavanagh’s British General Election 2010, and more importantly, the coveted title of Britain’s best retrospective political prognosticator!
Election 1: Governing Party 32, Opposition Party 50, Opposition lead eighteen points
Election 2: Governing Party 39, Opposition party 37, Government lead two points.
Election 3: Governing Party 35, Opposition party 54, Opposition lead nineteen points
Election 4: Governing Party 46, Opposition Party 40, Government lead six points.
Election 5: Governing Party 42, Opposition Party 34, Government lead eight points.
Election 6: Governing Party 32, Opposition Party 43, Opposition lead eleven points.
Election 7: Governing Party 35, Opposition Party 45, Opposition lead ten points.
Election 8: Governing Party 41, Opposition party 51, Opposition lead ten points
Election 9: Governing party 35, Opposition party 40, Opposition lead five points
Election 10: Governing Party 39, Opposition Party 46, Opposition lead seven points.
- Note for Pedants and Cheats: I’ve used the Mori “all voters” data where possible. But I’ve also used Mark Pack’s excellent spreadsheet of post war polls. This means no cheating, as I’ll be able to tell. It also means a little methodological and time inconsistency to which I plead fair cop, but it’s only a bit of fun, so screw you guys. [↩]