A hard road to a Tory majority?

One of the things that got me thinking about the strategic problems of the Tory party is that I’ve just written a longish article about the Tory strategy for victory in the next election.

Said article concludes that it looks pretty hard, though not impossible, and would require appealing to substantial new chunks of the electorate to be really successful.

The article is for Progress, and you can read it online here.

If I say so myself, despite being a fairly straightforward take on the Tories electoral strategy, it’s pretty interesting on the surprising strength of the LibDems in local government, given the upcoming Eastleigh by-election.

Odds that the Lib Dems hold the by-election on Local election day are pretty high, I should guess.

2 Responses to “A hard road to a Tory majority?”

  1. Alex

    Do you actually think there will be an incumbency premium for Coalition MPs next time out?

    I can’t think of a national government in Europe that’s been re-elected since the economic crisis. At one point it looked like there was a move to the right, at another to the left, but this was an artefact of timing – it depended who was in government and when the next election came up. One reading of the last UK election was that there was a generalised lash out at incumbents. I rather think the next one will be similar.

    • hopisen

      I’d expect an incumbency premium for Tory MPs elected for the first time in 2010, yes. This is more to do with them having had 5 years to work on behalf of electors than national politics, (plus, often the departure of the previous Labour MP who benefited from the same thing).

      There might also be a number of people who regularly prefer the incumbent govt over ‘change’. However, this is a much smaller group, and likely to be outweighed by other factors, perhaps to the point of negligibility.


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